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Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting

Download or Read eBook Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting PDF written by Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 31
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781451848137
ISBN-13 : 1451848137
Rating : 4/5 (37 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting by : Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen

Book excerpt: Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.


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