Book excerpt: Includes • Introduction to Decision Making • Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets • Group Mechanics • Heuristics and Programmed Decisions • Probability and Base Rate Neglect Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make. The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including: • Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory • Heuristics • Probability and Expected Value • Bayes Theorem • Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods • Game Theory • Prediction Markets • Brainstorming and Groupthink • Black Swan Events. Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools. About the Series Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know is part of the Self-Learning Management Series that helps working professionals moving into management roles. This Self Learning Management Series intends to give a jump start to working professionals, whose job roles demand to have the knowledge imparted in a B-school but haven’t got a chance to visit one. This series is designed to address every aspect of business from HR to Finance to Marketing to Operations, be it any industry. Each book includes basic fundamentals, important concepts, standard and well-known principles as well as practical ways of application of the subject matter. The distinctiveness of the series lies in that all the relevant information is bundled in a compact form that is very easy to interpret. About the Author Mark Koscinski is an assistant professor of accounting practice at Moravian College in Bethlehem, PA, where he teaches a graduate level Decision Analysis class and several advanced accounting classes. He is a certified public accountant, and holds a BA with high honors and MBA from Rutgers University and a doctorate from Drew University. Prior to joining the faculty at Moravian College, Mark was a chief financial officer of various public and private organizations in the defense contracting, toy, investment banking, and banking industries. He has over forty years of experience in the business world, and has supervised every operation of an organization including sales and marketing. Mark is passionate about sharing his knowledge with his students. His background and experience gives him a unique position to write on management topics that are easy to understand for non-MBA graduates. About Vibrant Publishers Vibrant Publishers is focused on presenting the best texts for learning about technology and business as well as books for test preparation. Categories include programming, operating systems and other texts focused on IT. In addition, a series of books helps professionals in their own disciplines learn the business skills needed in their professional growth. Vibrant Publishers has a standardized test preparation series covering the GMAT, GRE and SAT, providing ample study and practice material in a simple and well organized format, helping students get closer to their dream universities.