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Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Download or Read eBook Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa PDF written by Brandon Buell and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 61
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781513582498
ISBN-13 : 1513582496
Rating : 4/5 (98 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Brandon Buell

Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.


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