Mind the Gap: City-Level Inflation Synchronization
Author | : Mr. Serhan Cevik |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 17 |
Release | : 2022-09-02 |
ISBN-10 | : 9798400218613 |
ISBN-13 | : |
Rating | : 4/5 (13 Downloads) |
Book excerpt: The post-pandemic rise in consumer prices across the world has renewed interest in inflation dynamics after decades of global disinflation. This paper provides a spatial investigation of inflation synchronicity at the city level in Lithuania using disaggregated monthly data during the period 2000–2021. The empirical analysis provides strong evidence that (i) the co-movement of city-level inflation rates—estimated using the instantaneous quasi-correlation approach—is significantly weaker than the extent of synchronization suggested by the simple correlation analysis; (ii) there is substantial heterogeneity in the instantaneous quasi-correlation of inflation subcomponents between city pairs; and (iii) there are significant changes in the degree of city-level synchronization over time, reflecting important economic developments in history such as the global financial crisis, the adoption of euro, and the COVID-19 pandemic.