Book excerpt: This book is an expanded version of The Rhythms of History, the book that made macro-History into a semi-quantitative Science. New features include: 1. an appendix showing how the history of Mayan civilization conforms to the book''s Theory of Civilizations including the latest information from the newly discovered hieroglyphic texts at Dos Pilas, Guatemala; 2. an appendix on the sub-Saharan African civilization, Great Zimbabwe, showing it fits the theory; 3. a comparison of the theory with Toynbee''s observations showing the many new features resulting from a quantitative theory; 4. numerous historic pictures and illustrations of the civilizations of Mankind including a number of newly found pictures from the nineteenth century; 5. a chapter describing the potentially disturbing implications of patterns in civilizations - Are we free? ? and the implications for the Philosophy of History; and 6. expanded comments in many sections such as the sections on the future of Humanity, the role of China, and the Islamic - West conflict. The book begins with a hard hitting, "tell it like it is" chapter on the current international situation with statements such as: "The United States and Western civilization is now engaged in a small Vietnam-style war on a global scale at the time of this writing. This war is still in the early stages of development. ... The attack on the World Trade Center by Muslim terrorists may have the same significance for Western civilization that the Gothic invasion of Rome itself in the prime of the Empire (the First Century AD) had for the future of Rome. They may be a premonition of things to come - not necessarily soon but perhaps in a few centuries. The Goths returned three centuries later and remained as permanent conquerors. ... Over the long term the West must free itself from a dependence on Muslim oil. Muslim oil revenues are the fuel for the development of weapons of mass destruction by Iran and Iraq. In the future they will supply the revenues of an expansionist Islam. ... As the silk trade looted the Roman Empire of its gold and reduced its economy, the trade in oil is looting the West of its prosperity and freedom of action. The rise and fall of oil prices has a significantly greater effect on the American and world economy than the raising and lowering of interest rates by central banks. " The book then describes a theory of civilizations that led to these observations. Currently unfolding events seem to be fulfilling the predictions which were made last year (including the new North Korean threat that seems to be consistent with a predicted breakdown in Japan ? North Korea will create major problems with Japan. As this is being written Japan is moving Aegis destroyers nearer to North Korea and preparing for defense.) THE EVENTS DESCRIBED IN THIS BOOK, AND ITS PREDECESSOR, APPEAR TO BE HAPPENING AS PREDICTED LAST YEAR. According to Theory of Civilizations the basis of civilizations was laid with a genetic mutation (found by Ding et al) 40,000 years ago that created bold enterprising individuals who became the leadership group of civilizations: a group that Toynbee called the "creative minority." When the world''s climate became warmer and more stable 10,000 years ago the seeds of civilizations began to germinate. Thus the origin of civilizations is tied to human genetics. The book then shows that a long-term social behavior pattern of mankind (based on four generation trends) causes civilizations to develop and "oscillate" in patterns of routs and rallies. Civilizations rise and fall due to their internal human dynamics. The theory of civilization is developed using equations and 68 diagrams that show a close detailed match between the theory and the actual history of all known Asian, European and African civilizations over the last 5,500 years. The theory projects the future of today''s civilizations (including the future of Western and Islamic civilizations). It also successfully describes the interaction of barbarians and civilizations, the interaction of two civilizations, the impact of modern technology on civilizations (it accounts for the Luddite reaction to the Industrial Revolution), the impact of major environmental events on civilizations (e.g. the collapse of Minoan civilization due to a volcanic eruption), and the disintegration of civilizations. It also accounts for the tremendous growth phases seen in many civilizations such as the building of the great pyramids in Egyptian civilizations. Based on the theory fifteen new civilizations are identified including new prehistoric Chinese and Egyptian civilizations. Having shown the success of the theory for earth civilizations it considers the form of extraterrestrial civilizations and calculates their impact on Western civilization should contact be established. The book also shows the need for the colonization of space and nearby planets if mankind is to progress in the future. The book analyzes the impact of the lengthening life spans of mankind on the future of civilizations. Predictions are made for the "state of the world" for 2050 and 2100. A detailed understanding the past enables the theory of civilizations to make predictions for the future. Defining Progress to be the sum of the world''s civilizations the book shows that Progress seems to be approximately linearly increasing over the last 5,500 years. A plot of Progress appears on the book''s cover (shown on this web page) together with the contributions of each civilization to Progress. (The vertical order of the civilizations in the plot is arbitrary. Older civilizations tend to be lower in the plot.) The book is a tour de force that makes History a Science rather than a collection of random events. It is the first detailed mathematical treatment of history. Although the book contains mathematics it is intended for the general reader as well as the mathematically inclined. There are copious verbal descriptions of the theory as well as many figures plotting the theory versus historical events. A qualitative, descriptive theory of civilizations is also presented that is like a "Dow Theory of Civilizations."