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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

Download or Read eBook A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model PDF written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model
Author :
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages : 59
Release :
ISBN-10 : 1451871376
ISBN-13 : 9781451871371
Rating : 4/5 (76 Downloads)

Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model by : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik

Book excerpt: This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.


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