Bayesian Decision Analysis
Author | : Jim Q. Smith |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 349 |
Release | : 2010-09-23 |
ISBN-10 | : 9781139491112 |
ISBN-13 | : 1139491113 |
Rating | : 4/5 (12 Downloads) |
Book excerpt: Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.