Book excerpt: Includes - Introduction to Decision Making - Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets - Group Mechanics - Heuristics and Programmed Decisions - Probability and Base Rate Neglect Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make. The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including: - Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory - Heuristics - Probability and Expected Value - Bayes Theorem - Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods - Game Theory - Prediction Markets - Brainstorming and Groupthink - Black Swan Events. Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.