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Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU

Download or Read eBook Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU PDF written by Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-15 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 42
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781513513294
ISBN-13 : 151351329X
Rating : 4/5 (94 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU by : Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki

Book excerpt: We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR) framework with a focus on financial variables. We find that excessive bank credit growth is associated with lower future real GDP growth in the medium term especially on the low quantiles of growth distribution. Moreover, worsening of both global financial conditions and external conditions are associated with lower future growth in the short term, especially at the high quantiles of growth distribution. Country-specific results are broadly in line with ECCU-wide results, with some variation potentially due to the strong Citizenship-By-Investment program inflows and lack of credit union data. The establishment of a macroprudential framework in the ECCU would need to pay close attention to credit growth not only of banks but also credit unions and continue to monitor global and external conditions.


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