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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Download or Read eBook Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers PDF written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 43
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781475576443
ISBN-13 : 1475576447
Rating : 4/5 (43 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Book excerpt: This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.


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