Book excerpt: If unpredictability is so much of what makes sports compelling, the baseball draft might be the best place to look. This book explores the intricate uncertainties of the draft and the people who face it. Since the modern draft began in 1965, major league teams have attempted, with varying degrees of success, to identify and develop stars of the future. Whether because of injury, poor performance or mental and physical struggles, a large percentage of the most ballyhooed prospects never reach the game's highest level. Though teams have improved in recent years at turning top picks into major leaguers, the baseball draft is still centered on educated guesswork. This book explains why.