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Uncertainty and Unemployment

Download or Read eBook Uncertainty and Unemployment PDF written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Uncertainty and Unemployment
Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Total Pages : 26
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781498356305
ISBN-13 : 1498356303
Rating : 4/5 (05 Downloads)

Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Unemployment by : Sangyup Choi

Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.


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